Bulk carriers and container ships remain high
- Categories：Industry News
- Author：haifeier
- Time：2022-03-10 09:31:16
Dry bulk shipping market: freight rates will remain high, but the growth will be moderate
As the growth rate of demand is faster than that of transport capacity supply, it is expected that the dry bulk shipping market will remain stable in 2022, but the growth rate of freight will not be as strong as that in 2021.
The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global GDP will grow by 4.4% in 2022, and the economic recovery will promote the growth of dry bulk trade. De Luli predicts that China's steel industry will grow in 2022 after power and production restrictions last year, which will support the import demand of raw materials such as iron ore, other ores (such as nickel ore) and coking coal. Although the total iron ore inventory in Chinese ports exceeds 150 million tons, Chinese importers prefer to import rather than consume iron ore inventory.
With the sharp rise of industrial and domestic power demand in China and India, the demand for thermal coal will further surge in 2022, and the import of thermal coal between China and India will maintain growth.
Australia and Argentina have good prospects for grain harvest, and grain trade is also expected to grow. Although deluli predicts that the grain export of the United States will decrease under the condition of the decline of planting area, the overall export of the country will still be enough to meet the transportation demand of Panamax ships on the China US route. Due to favorable climate conditions, the grain harvest in the Black Sea region is also expected to be good, which provides support for the transportation demand of Panamax and Supramax ships in the region.
However, the easing of port congestion and the decline of idle transport capacity in 2022 will also push up the supply of transport capacity and restrain the further rise of dry bulk carrier rent. At present, a large number of dry bulk carriers are idle. When the rent rises, the number of idle ships will gradually decline. In addition, congestion at Chinese ports has eased, and ships loaded with Australian coal that had been stranded at the port have begun unloading. Of course, considering the uncertainty of the new variant virus and its development, it will take some time for port congestion and transport capacity to return to the state before the epidemic.
Chemical, crude oil and product tanker shipping market: 2022 will be a year of recovery
The trade demand for methanol and vegetable oil will fully recover from the impact of covid-19 epidemic. After experiencing the challenges of the past year, the chemical ship is expected to begin to recover in 2022. Deluri expects that Omicron variant will have a moderate impact on the trade of chemicals and vegetable oil in the first quarter of this year, and the trade prospect of the whole year is optimistic. China's organic chemical production capacity expansion momentum is strong, thus inhibiting its imports, which will also put pressure on the chemical ship shipping market in 2022. Nevertheless, Drury expects the production of palm oil and sunflower oil in 2021-2022 to increase compared with the previous year, and the import volume of India and China will increase. With the recovery of copper mine production and operation in Chile and the improvement of fertilizer demand in India, the maritime trade of inorganic chemicals will also return to the pre epidemic level in 2019 in 2022.
Like the chemical ship shipping market, the recovery of shipping demand in the crude oil tanker shipping market will also promote the rise of freight in this sector. The impact of the spread of Omicron virus on oil demand may be limited to the first quarter of 2022. The promotion of vaccination will further promote the recovery of economic activities and personnel mobility, and the global oil demand will return to the pre epidemic level in 2019 in 2022. In addition, after the significant reduction of oil inventories in 2021, replenishment of inventories in 2022 will further promote the ton capacity demand of crude oil trade and crude oil tanker shipping market. As OPEC + member countries will end production cuts by September 2022, while non OPEC + member countries will also increase production, oil supply will be slightly surplus, supporting inventory replenishment activities. Although ship dismantling activities are expected to increase, the delivery capacity continues to exceed the disassembly capacity, so the supply of capacity continues to expand. The excess supply of crude oil tanker capacity in the market will take some time to be digested, and the freight rate is expected to rise sharply in the fourth quarter of 2022.
For the refined oil shipping market, if the government implements stricter blockade measures due to the new variant virus, the freight growth of the refined oil tanker shipping market will be limited in the first quarter of 2022. But so far, considering the promotion of the global vaccination program, deluli expects the government's blockade measures to be warmer, which will support the flow of global population and the demand for refined oil (especially transportation fuel), thus promoting the growth of transportation demand for refined oil tankers. After a slow recovery in 2021, the freight rate of the refined oil tanker shipping market will begin to rise in 2022.
LPG shipping market: the improvement of LPG supply and the extension of ship waiting time will increase freight rates
The strong demand for LPG from the petrochemical industry and residents in Asia will improve the LPG supply from the Middle East and the United States to Asia, and the LPG ship freight is expected to rise. Deluli expects 20 vlgc ships to be delivered. Considering the congestion and ship delay caused by the new reservation system of the Panama Canal, the new delivery capacity will be deployed in the growing LPG trade between the United States and Asia. Thanks to the ammonia fuel trade and the demand for dual fuel ships, new shipbuilding orders will remain stable, while the demolition of small ships will accelerate.
LNG shipping market: cold winter will support LNG replenishment demand
Due to the LNG shortage in Europe and some Asian countries, deluli is optimistic about the LNG demand in 2022. Cold winter is expected to stimulate LNG replenishment demand in Asia and Europe, while LNG demand in Latin America is uncertain. Although the impact of the Omicron variant on the LNG shipping market is expected to be moderate, deluri believes that with the intensification of competition for LNG supply in Asia and Europe, the high volatility of LNG price and freight will continue. With the launch of Sabine pass T6 and Calcasieu pass LNG projects, the United States will become the largest LNG exporter. In general, about 24 million tons of liquefaction capacity is planned to be put into operation in 2022. The market will also pay attention to how LNG suppliers can restore the output decreased since the epidemic. In terms of transport capacity, about 30 LNG ships are expected to be delivered in 2022, most of which have signed charter parties. At the same time, with the implementation of eexi and CII regulations in 2023, the ship dismantling volume of steam turbine engine ships is also increasing.
Container shipping market: Although the demand for container transportation slows down, the revenue of container transportation industry will still grow
Inflation watch, persistent supply chain bottlenecks, and worrisome COVID-19 variants are leading to slower demand for consolidation. Therefore, deluli expects the global port throughput to increase by 4.6% in 2022, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous forecast.
In 2022, the growth rate of container fleet capacity is expected to be lower than that of demand; However, a record number of new shipbuilding will be delivered in 2023, and the supply of fleet capacity will accelerate. In the fourth quarter of 202, the development of container shipping freight rate was lower than expected. Deluli lowered the freight rate forecast for the whole year of 2021. However, considering the strong momentum of the contract freight rate market and the continuous disturbance of the epidemic to the supply chain, deluli expects the global container shipping freight rate to maintain a rapid growth.
Multi purpose ship shipping market: the limited capacity of the centralized transportation market will benefit the multi-purpose ship shipping market
The continuous limited capacity of the container shipping market provides support for the development of the multi-purpose ship shipping market in 2022. Under the background of old ship dismantling and weak orders, the growth of offshore wind power project investment also promotes the multi-purpose ship shipping market. At the same time, offshore wind projects will also promote the demand for professional engineering ships, which will also bring potential new shipbuilding orders.
As the growth rate of demand is faster than that of transport capacity supply, it is expected that the dry bulk shipping market will remain stable in 2022, but the growth rate of freight will not be as strong as that in 2021.
The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global GDP will grow by 4.4% in 2022, and the economic recovery will promote the growth of dry bulk trade. De Luli predicts that China's steel industry will grow in 2022 after power and production restrictions last year, which will support the import demand of raw materials such as iron ore, other ores (such as nickel ore) and coking coal. Although the total iron ore inventory in Chinese ports exceeds 150 million tons, Chinese importers prefer to import rather than consume iron ore inventory.
With the sharp rise of industrial and domestic power demand in China and India, the demand for thermal coal will further surge in 2022, and the import of thermal coal between China and India will maintain growth.
Australia and Argentina have good prospects for grain harvest, and grain trade is also expected to grow. Although deluli predicts that the grain export of the United States will decrease under the condition of the decline of planting area, the overall export of the country will still be enough to meet the transportation demand of Panamax ships on the China US route. Due to favorable climate conditions, the grain harvest in the Black Sea region is also expected to be good, which provides support for the transportation demand of Panamax and Supramax ships in the region.
However, the easing of port congestion and the decline of idle transport capacity in 2022 will also push up the supply of transport capacity and restrain the further rise of dry bulk carrier rent. At present, a large number of dry bulk carriers are idle. When the rent rises, the number of idle ships will gradually decline. In addition, congestion at Chinese ports has eased, and ships loaded with Australian coal that had been stranded at the port have begun unloading. Of course, considering the uncertainty of the new variant virus and its development, it will take some time for port congestion and transport capacity to return to the state before the epidemic.
Chemical, crude oil and product tanker shipping market: 2022 will be a year of recovery
The trade demand for methanol and vegetable oil will fully recover from the impact of covid-19 epidemic. After experiencing the challenges of the past year, the chemical ship is expected to begin to recover in 2022. Deluri expects that Omicron variant will have a moderate impact on the trade of chemicals and vegetable oil in the first quarter of this year, and the trade prospect of the whole year is optimistic. China's organic chemical production capacity expansion momentum is strong, thus inhibiting its imports, which will also put pressure on the chemical ship shipping market in 2022. Nevertheless, Drury expects the production of palm oil and sunflower oil in 2021-2022 to increase compared with the previous year, and the import volume of India and China will increase. With the recovery of copper mine production and operation in Chile and the improvement of fertilizer demand in India, the maritime trade of inorganic chemicals will also return to the pre epidemic level in 2019 in 2022.
Like the chemical ship shipping market, the recovery of shipping demand in the crude oil tanker shipping market will also promote the rise of freight in this sector. The impact of the spread of Omicron virus on oil demand may be limited to the first quarter of 2022. The promotion of vaccination will further promote the recovery of economic activities and personnel mobility, and the global oil demand will return to the pre epidemic level in 2019 in 2022. In addition, after the significant reduction of oil inventories in 2021, replenishment of inventories in 2022 will further promote the ton capacity demand of crude oil trade and crude oil tanker shipping market. As OPEC + member countries will end production cuts by September 2022, while non OPEC + member countries will also increase production, oil supply will be slightly surplus, supporting inventory replenishment activities. Although ship dismantling activities are expected to increase, the delivery capacity continues to exceed the disassembly capacity, so the supply of capacity continues to expand. The excess supply of crude oil tanker capacity in the market will take some time to be digested, and the freight rate is expected to rise sharply in the fourth quarter of 2022.
For the refined oil shipping market, if the government implements stricter blockade measures due to the new variant virus, the freight growth of the refined oil tanker shipping market will be limited in the first quarter of 2022. But so far, considering the promotion of the global vaccination program, deluli expects the government's blockade measures to be warmer, which will support the flow of global population and the demand for refined oil (especially transportation fuel), thus promoting the growth of transportation demand for refined oil tankers. After a slow recovery in 2021, the freight rate of the refined oil tanker shipping market will begin to rise in 2022.
LPG shipping market: the improvement of LPG supply and the extension of ship waiting time will increase freight rates
The strong demand for LPG from the petrochemical industry and residents in Asia will improve the LPG supply from the Middle East and the United States to Asia, and the LPG ship freight is expected to rise. Deluli expects 20 vlgc ships to be delivered. Considering the congestion and ship delay caused by the new reservation system of the Panama Canal, the new delivery capacity will be deployed in the growing LPG trade between the United States and Asia. Thanks to the ammonia fuel trade and the demand for dual fuel ships, new shipbuilding orders will remain stable, while the demolition of small ships will accelerate.
LNG shipping market: cold winter will support LNG replenishment demand
Due to the LNG shortage in Europe and some Asian countries, deluli is optimistic about the LNG demand in 2022. Cold winter is expected to stimulate LNG replenishment demand in Asia and Europe, while LNG demand in Latin America is uncertain. Although the impact of the Omicron variant on the LNG shipping market is expected to be moderate, deluri believes that with the intensification of competition for LNG supply in Asia and Europe, the high volatility of LNG price and freight will continue. With the launch of Sabine pass T6 and Calcasieu pass LNG projects, the United States will become the largest LNG exporter. In general, about 24 million tons of liquefaction capacity is planned to be put into operation in 2022. The market will also pay attention to how LNG suppliers can restore the output decreased since the epidemic. In terms of transport capacity, about 30 LNG ships are expected to be delivered in 2022, most of which have signed charter parties. At the same time, with the implementation of eexi and CII regulations in 2023, the ship dismantling volume of steam turbine engine ships is also increasing.
Container shipping market: Although the demand for container transportation slows down, the revenue of container transportation industry will still grow
Inflation watch, persistent supply chain bottlenecks, and worrisome COVID-19 variants are leading to slower demand for consolidation. Therefore, deluli expects the global port throughput to increase by 4.6% in 2022, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous forecast.
In 2022, the growth rate of container fleet capacity is expected to be lower than that of demand; However, a record number of new shipbuilding will be delivered in 2023, and the supply of fleet capacity will accelerate. In the fourth quarter of 202, the development of container shipping freight rate was lower than expected. Deluli lowered the freight rate forecast for the whole year of 2021. However, considering the strong momentum of the contract freight rate market and the continuous disturbance of the epidemic to the supply chain, deluli expects the global container shipping freight rate to maintain a rapid growth.
Multi purpose ship shipping market: the limited capacity of the centralized transportation market will benefit the multi-purpose ship shipping market
The continuous limited capacity of the container shipping market provides support for the development of the multi-purpose ship shipping market in 2022. Under the background of old ship dismantling and weak orders, the growth of offshore wind power project investment also promotes the multi-purpose ship shipping market. At the same time, offshore wind projects will also promote the demand for professional engineering ships, which will also bring potential new shipbuilding orders.
PREV:
Another light in the...
NEXT:
none
PREV:
Another light in the...
NEXT:
none
- World Alliance
- Tel +86 13921366165
- TOP
Jiangyin Seafavor marine engineering&service Co.,ltd. All Rights Reserved 苏ICP备2022005635号-1 网站统计