Another light in the shipping market
- Categories：Industry News
- Author：haifeier
- Time：2022-03-10 09:30:11
The major analysis platforms have basically settled the summary of the shipping market in 2021. Without exception, they believe that the overall performance of the shipping market in 2021 is excellent. Among them, in addition to the popularity of the centralized transportation market, which has focused the attention of both inside and outside the industry, the automobile transportation ship market, which was not high-profile in the past, has also moved to position C, gradually becoming another light in the shipping market. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, a number of multinational automobile manufacturers have stopped exporting vehicles to Russia, which many analysts believe will benefit the export of domestic cars.
1. Automobile export trade is booming
(1) China's auto exports will usher in a period of rapid growth
The China Automobile Industry Association announced the automobile export in January. The data showed that the domestic automobile export reached 231000, a year-on-year increase of 87.7%. In January this year, the monthly ro ro export of Guangzhou Nansha automobile port exceeded 8000, a record high. In 2021, China's automobile exports exceeded 2 million, double that of the previous year and achieved a historic breakthrough. According to the export statistics of vehicle enterprises, China exported 2.015 million vehicles in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 1 times, accounting for 7.7% of the total vehicle sales, an increase of 3.7 percentage points over the previous year. From the perspective of the export situation of automobile enterprises throughout the year, the export of each month maintained a rapid growth year-on-year. Among them, the average monthly export volume in the fourth quarter exceeded 200000 vehicles, which was more prominent. China Automobile Association predicts that China's automobile export will usher in a period of rapid growth. In 2022, automobile export is expected to increase by about 22%.
(2) New energy vehicle exports provide a strong engine
New energy vehicles have become a new driving force for China's automobile export growth. In 2021, 310000 new energy vehicles were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 304.6%. Among them, 300000 new energy passenger vehicles were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 329.5%; 10000 new energy commercial vehicles were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 59.6%. In December 2021, the contribution of new energy vehicles to growth reached 3.9%. In January 2022, the export volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 54000, with a year-on-year increase of 538.7%.
(3) Domestic large automobile groups become the largest cargo owners
From the perspective of export enterprises, SAIC Group will export 54000 new energy passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles through the joint efforts of new energy passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles in 2021, becoming the leader in the export of Chinese brand new energy vehicles; BYD, JAC group, Geely Holding and other independent brands achieved rapid growth in the export of new energy vehicles in 2021.
(4) Export flows focus on Europe
In terms of export flow, according to the data of the General Administration of customs, in 2021, the top ten countries in China's export volume of new energy vehicles were Belgium, Bangladesh, the United Kingdom, India, Thailand, Germany, France, Slovenia, Australia and the Philippines. Among them, the export growth to Slovenia, Australia and Thailand is the most obvious. In 2021, the above-mentioned ten countries exported 424000 new energy vehicles, accounting for 77.8% of the total export of new energy vehicles. China's automobile export destinations by sea have changed. Before 2017, the Middle East, Latin America and the Indian subcontinent were the main destinations for China's automobile maritime exports (accounting for 80% of the export volume in 2017). However, in recent years, the rapid development of China's automobile industry and product structure has helped it open up new export markets, and the number of cars sold to Europe and North America has increased significantly. In 2021, the proportion of exports to the Middle East, Latin America and the Indian subcontinent in China's total automobile shipping exports decreased to 50%, and the share of Europe and North America increased to 31% from 15% in 2017 in the same period. Among them, electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles exported to Europe in 2021 have accounted for 50% of the total maritime exports of this part of China's models. In addition, in recent years, the number of cars exported by China to East and Southeast Asia is also in a stage of rapid growth.
2. Shortage of transport capacity and resources of motor transport ships
(1) Ship revenue increased significantly
In 2021, COVID-19's influence on container shipping resources increased, and the spot price of container shipping from China to the US and Europe increased by 10 times or even 20 times. Similar to container resources, RO ro resources are also extremely tight.
Clarkson's report "summary and Prospect of shipping market in 2021" pointed out that the one-year time charter rent of motor transport ships increased by 103% and that of RO ro passenger ships increased by 19% in 2021. The serious port congestion in many places leads to the actual active market and the shortage of transport capacity.
(2) The transport capacity of motor transport ship market is facing renewal
Take PCTC in motor transport ships as an example. According to the data of Lloyd's list intelligence (see Figure 1), about 15% of the existing PCTC fleet has been used for 20 years or more. Traditionally, PCTC will be eliminated after 20 years of operation.
On the other hand, "environmental protection and technology" has attracted more and more attention in the late stage of the epidemic, focusing on reducing carbon emissions from the shipping industry. Due to the recovery of shipping trade in 2021, the shipping industry estimated to emit about 855 million tons of carbon dioxide last year, accounting for a small increase to 2.4% of global carbon dioxide emissions. However, as the formation of industry regulatory and policy framework is gradually accelerating, including a series of measures planned by IMO and the EU, it is bound to catalyze the renewal of the ship market.
1. Automobile export trade is booming
(1) China's auto exports will usher in a period of rapid growth
The China Automobile Industry Association announced the automobile export in January. The data showed that the domestic automobile export reached 231000, a year-on-year increase of 87.7%. In January this year, the monthly ro ro export of Guangzhou Nansha automobile port exceeded 8000, a record high. In 2021, China's automobile exports exceeded 2 million, double that of the previous year and achieved a historic breakthrough. According to the export statistics of vehicle enterprises, China exported 2.015 million vehicles in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 1 times, accounting for 7.7% of the total vehicle sales, an increase of 3.7 percentage points over the previous year. From the perspective of the export situation of automobile enterprises throughout the year, the export of each month maintained a rapid growth year-on-year. Among them, the average monthly export volume in the fourth quarter exceeded 200000 vehicles, which was more prominent. China Automobile Association predicts that China's automobile export will usher in a period of rapid growth. In 2022, automobile export is expected to increase by about 22%.
(2) New energy vehicle exports provide a strong engine
New energy vehicles have become a new driving force for China's automobile export growth. In 2021, 310000 new energy vehicles were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 304.6%. Among them, 300000 new energy passenger vehicles were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 329.5%; 10000 new energy commercial vehicles were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 59.6%. In December 2021, the contribution of new energy vehicles to growth reached 3.9%. In January 2022, the export volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 54000, with a year-on-year increase of 538.7%.
(3) Domestic large automobile groups become the largest cargo owners
From the perspective of export enterprises, SAIC Group will export 54000 new energy passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles through the joint efforts of new energy passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles in 2021, becoming the leader in the export of Chinese brand new energy vehicles; BYD, JAC group, Geely Holding and other independent brands achieved rapid growth in the export of new energy vehicles in 2021.
(4) Export flows focus on Europe
In terms of export flow, according to the data of the General Administration of customs, in 2021, the top ten countries in China's export volume of new energy vehicles were Belgium, Bangladesh, the United Kingdom, India, Thailand, Germany, France, Slovenia, Australia and the Philippines. Among them, the export growth to Slovenia, Australia and Thailand is the most obvious. In 2021, the above-mentioned ten countries exported 424000 new energy vehicles, accounting for 77.8% of the total export of new energy vehicles. China's automobile export destinations by sea have changed. Before 2017, the Middle East, Latin America and the Indian subcontinent were the main destinations for China's automobile maritime exports (accounting for 80% of the export volume in 2017). However, in recent years, the rapid development of China's automobile industry and product structure has helped it open up new export markets, and the number of cars sold to Europe and North America has increased significantly. In 2021, the proportion of exports to the Middle East, Latin America and the Indian subcontinent in China's total automobile shipping exports decreased to 50%, and the share of Europe and North America increased to 31% from 15% in 2017 in the same period. Among them, electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles exported to Europe in 2021 have accounted for 50% of the total maritime exports of this part of China's models. In addition, in recent years, the number of cars exported by China to East and Southeast Asia is also in a stage of rapid growth.
2. Shortage of transport capacity and resources of motor transport ships
(1) Ship revenue increased significantly
In 2021, COVID-19's influence on container shipping resources increased, and the spot price of container shipping from China to the US and Europe increased by 10 times or even 20 times. Similar to container resources, RO ro resources are also extremely tight.
Clarkson's report "summary and Prospect of shipping market in 2021" pointed out that the one-year time charter rent of motor transport ships increased by 103% and that of RO ro passenger ships increased by 19% in 2021. The serious port congestion in many places leads to the actual active market and the shortage of transport capacity.
(2) The transport capacity of motor transport ship market is facing renewal
Take PCTC in motor transport ships as an example. According to the data of Lloyd's list intelligence (see Figure 1), about 15% of the existing PCTC fleet has been used for 20 years or more. Traditionally, PCTC will be eliminated after 20 years of operation.
On the other hand, "environmental protection and technology" has attracted more and more attention in the late stage of the epidemic, focusing on reducing carbon emissions from the shipping industry. Due to the recovery of shipping trade in 2021, the shipping industry estimated to emit about 855 million tons of carbon dioxide last year, accounting for a small increase to 2.4% of global carbon dioxide emissions. However, as the formation of industry regulatory and policy framework is gradually accelerating, including a series of measures planned by IMO and the EU, it is bound to catalyze the renewal of the ship market.
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