Review and Prospect of international container transportation market
- Categories：Company News
- Author：创始人
- Time：2022-03-10 09:26:45
The continuous mismatch between supply and demand in 2021 has formed a systematic shortage of transportation capacity in the whole supply chain, which has reversed the contradiction of oversupply in the centralized transportation industry for a long time to a certain extent, and the industry profit has reached a record high.
2022 will be a challenging year. The uncertainty of economic and trade recovery will increase, and the demand growth will gradually return to the pre epidemic level. However, the market supply-demand relationship may continue to support the freight rate, and the industry is expected to remain profitable.
Review of 2021: rising freight rates and record profits in the industry
The economy and trade recovered strongly, and the volume of centralized cargo increased
In 2021, the global epidemic was still spreading, but with the extensive vaccination and the gradual liberalization of national economies, the global economy and trade recovered rapidly. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October 2021, the global economy bottomed out and rebounded in 2021, with an expected growth of 5.9%. The latest report of the World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts that the global commodity trade will grow by 10.8% in 2021.
The two major economies of China and the United States have played a leading role in the global economic and trade recovery from both sides of supply and demand.
China's stable production and strong exports have greatly maintained the stability of the global industrial chain and provided strong support for the global economic and trade recovery from the supply side. With the support of active fiscal policy during the epidemic, the United States took the lead in economic recovery and stimulated demand growth.
Benefiting from this, in 2021, the eastward cargo volume of the trans Pacific route achieved a leap forward growth, and effectively drove the cargo volume of the centralized transportation market to catch up with and surpass the pre epidemic level throughout the year.
Congestion consumes transport capacity, and the effective transport capacity is insufficient
The transport capacity market in 2021 presents the characteristics of "three more" and "two less".
"More than three" means: first, more new ships are delivered. In 2021, the new delivery capacity of the market exceeded 1 million TEU, with a year-on-year increase of more than 20%. Second, there are many routes. Many large shippers also joined the trunk line operation in 2021. According to alphaliner's statistics, by the beginning of December 2021, the average weekly capacity of European and American routes had increased by 17.8% year-on-year. Third, there are many new orders. Due to the subjective needs of fleet development and the objective reality of market capacity shortage, stimulated by the high-level profitability of the industry, a new round of shipbuilding boom was set off in 2021, and the number of new orders reached a record high.
"Two less" refers to less dismantling capacity and less idle capacity. Under the historical background of the shortage of new and old shipping resources throughout the year, the dismantling of the old shipping chain has almost stopped the supply chain. At the same time, the idle transport capacity of the market is also declining. At the end of 2021, the idle transport capacity (excluding dock repair) was about 150000 TEU, accounting for only 0.5% of the total transport capacity of the global fleet, which was at a historical low.
Although the capacity of the global centralized transportation market has increased in 2021 and almost all ships have been put into operation, the effective capacity is insufficient due to wharf congestion and schedule disorder.
2022 will be a challenging year. The uncertainty of economic and trade recovery will increase, and the demand growth will gradually return to the pre epidemic level. However, the market supply-demand relationship may continue to support the freight rate, and the industry is expected to remain profitable.
Review of 2021: rising freight rates and record profits in the industry
The economy and trade recovered strongly, and the volume of centralized cargo increased
In 2021, the global epidemic was still spreading, but with the extensive vaccination and the gradual liberalization of national economies, the global economy and trade recovered rapidly. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October 2021, the global economy bottomed out and rebounded in 2021, with an expected growth of 5.9%. The latest report of the World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts that the global commodity trade will grow by 10.8% in 2021.
The two major economies of China and the United States have played a leading role in the global economic and trade recovery from both sides of supply and demand.
China's stable production and strong exports have greatly maintained the stability of the global industrial chain and provided strong support for the global economic and trade recovery from the supply side. With the support of active fiscal policy during the epidemic, the United States took the lead in economic recovery and stimulated demand growth.
Benefiting from this, in 2021, the eastward cargo volume of the trans Pacific route achieved a leap forward growth, and effectively drove the cargo volume of the centralized transportation market to catch up with and surpass the pre epidemic level throughout the year.
Congestion consumes transport capacity, and the effective transport capacity is insufficient
The transport capacity market in 2021 presents the characteristics of "three more" and "two less".
"More than three" means: first, more new ships are delivered. In 2021, the new delivery capacity of the market exceeded 1 million TEU, with a year-on-year increase of more than 20%. Second, there are many routes. Many large shippers also joined the trunk line operation in 2021. According to alphaliner's statistics, by the beginning of December 2021, the average weekly capacity of European and American routes had increased by 17.8% year-on-year. Third, there are many new orders. Due to the subjective needs of fleet development and the objective reality of market capacity shortage, stimulated by the high-level profitability of the industry, a new round of shipbuilding boom was set off in 2021, and the number of new orders reached a record high.
"Two less" refers to less dismantling capacity and less idle capacity. Under the historical background of the shortage of new and old shipping resources throughout the year, the dismantling of the old shipping chain has almost stopped the supply chain. At the same time, the idle transport capacity of the market is also declining. At the end of 2021, the idle transport capacity (excluding dock repair) was about 150000 TEU, accounting for only 0.5% of the total transport capacity of the global fleet, which was at a historical low.
Although the capacity of the global centralized transportation market has increased in 2021 and almost all ships have been put into operation, the effective capacity is insufficient due to wharf congestion and schedule disorder.
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